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Assessing impacts of EU and US policies on accelerated deployment of alternative maritime fuels

Abstract

This report examines the significant potential impact of the US and EU’s evolving climate policy landscape on maritime decarbonization. We investigate the investment implications of three pivotal policy developments:

1. The subsidies in the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that can reduce alternative fuel costs.

2. The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the FuelEU Maritime Regulation which progressively raise the costs of conventional fossil fuels.

3. The FuelEU pooling mechanism designed to reward early investment in advanced green technologies.

While EU and US policies will drive a range of behaviors including energy efficiency, this analysis is focused on the uptake of the alternative fuels identified in the Maritime Decarbonization Strategy as key pathways to reaching net-zero targets.1 We first evaluate the impacts of each policy on key alternative fuel pathways, and then look at the combined impacts for transatlantic routes where both EU and US policies overlap and create opportunities for the shipping industry to test and scale alternative technologies. We provide actionable insights aimed at fuel producers, shipowners and operators, and cargo owners, and highlight where existing policy can drive near-term action.