Skip to main content

Estimating the direct impact of nuclear propulsion on the global shipping fleet

Journal Article

Title: Estimating the direct impact of nuclear propulsion on the global shipping fleet
Author:
Koilo-Gabillaud, V., Emblemsvåg, J.
Affiliation:
Department of Ocean Operations and Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Ålesund, Norway
Publication Date:
Journal:
International Journal of Sustainable Energy
Volume:
45
Pages:
1-19
Publisher:
Taylor & Francis
Fuels Group:
Nuclear
Fuel Blends Mentioned?
No
Topics:
Markets and Forecasting, Policy, Strategy and Transition Pathways
Vessel Segment:
Ocean-going Vessels
Language:
English

Document Access

Website:
Document Source
Attachment: Access File
Notice: This material may be protected by Copyright Law.
(3 MB)

Citation

Koilo-Gabillaud, V.; Emblemsvåg, J. (2026). Estimating the direct impact of nuclear propulsion on the global shipping fleet. International Journal of Sustainable Energy, 45, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786451.2026.2681303
@article{Koilo-Gabillaud-2026-,
author = {Koilo-Gabillaud, V and Emblemsvåg, J},
title = {Estimating the direct impact of nuclear propulsion on the global shipping fleet},
journal = {International Journal of Sustainable Energy},
year = {2026},
month = {jun},
publisher = {Taylor & Francis},
volume = {45},
pages = {1--19},
doi = {10.1080/14786451.2026.2681303},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14786451.2026.2681303},
keywords = {Nuclear, Markets and Forecasting, Policy, Strategy and Transition Pathways, Ocean-going Vessels},
}
Export Citation to BibTex
TY - JOUR
TI - Estimating the direct impact of nuclear propulsion on the global shipping fleet
AU - Koilo-Gabillaud, V
AU - Emblemsvåg, J
T2 - International Journal of Sustainable Energy
AB - Decarbonising deep-sea shipping is difficult because vessels operate over long distances with high energy demand and limited refueling opportunities. Most transition scenarios emphasize alternative fuels and efficiency measures, while nuclear propulsion offers a structurally different pathway by shifting propulsion energy from voyage dependent expenditure to capital-dominated expenditure. This study examines operational implications of this shift using 2023 IMO Data Collection System dataset, covering 17,420 vessels, or about 30% of the global fleet. We compare observed operational speeds with design speeds and model a counterfactual nuclear propulsion scenario in which economic incentive for slow steaming disappears. Results show that the average observed speed is 11.49 knots, far below the design speed of 17.35 knots. Holding transport demand constant, a return to design speed would reduce required fleet capacity by approximately 31%. These findings suggest that nuclear propulsion could enable both operational CO₂ elimination and major productivity gains, representing a regime shift in fleet deployment.
DA - 2026/06//
PY - 2026
PB - Taylor & Francis
VL - 45
SP - 1
EP - 19
UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14786451.2026.2681303
DO - 10.1080/14786451.2026.2681303
LA - English
KW - Nuclear
KW - Markets and Forecasting
KW - Policy, Strategy and Transition Pathways
KW - Ocean-going Vessels
ER -
Export Citation to RIS

Abstract

Decarbonising deep-sea shipping is difficult because vessels operate over long distances with high energy demand and limited refueling opportunities. Most transition scenarios emphasize alternative fuels and efficiency measures, while nuclear propulsion offers a structurally different pathway by shifting propulsion energy from voyage dependent expenditure to capital-dominated expenditure. This study examines operational implications of this shift using 2023 IMO Data Collection System dataset, covering 17,420 vessels, or about 30% of the global fleet. We compare observed operational speeds with design speeds and model a counterfactual nuclear propulsion scenario in which economic incentive for slow steaming disappears. Results show that the average observed speed is 11.49 knots, far below the design speed of 17.35 knots. Holding transport demand constant, a return to design speed would reduce required fleet capacity by approximately 31%. These findings suggest that nuclear propulsion could enable both operational CO₂ elimination and major productivity gains, representing a regime shift in fleet deployment.