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The future evolution of global natural gas trade

Journal Article

Title: The future evolution of global natural gas trade
Affiliation:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Brentwood School, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Publication Date:
Journal:
IScience
Volume:
27
Issue:
2
Pages:
12
Publisher:
Cell Press
Fuels Group:
Methane (Natural Gas)
Fuel Blends Mentioned?
Yes
Feedstocks Group:
Unspecified Feedstock
Pathways Group:
Unspecified Pathway
Topics:
Markets and Forecasting
Language:
English

Document Access

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Document Source
Attachment:
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Citation

Yarlagadda, B.; Iyer, G.; Binsted, M.; Patel, P.; Wise, M.; McLeod, J. (2024). The future evolution of global natural gas trade. IScience, 27(2), 12.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.108902
@article{Yarlagadda-2024-4107,
author = {Yarlagadda, B and Iyer, G and Binsted, M and Patel, P and Wise, M and McLeod, J},
title = {The future evolution of global natural gas trade},
journal = {IScience},
year = {2024},
month = {feb},
publisher = {Cell Press},
volume = {27},
number = {2},
pages = {12},
doi = {10.1016/j.isci.2024.108902},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224001238},
keywords = {Unspecified Feedstock, Methane (Natural Gas), Unspecified Pathway, Markets and Forecasting},
}
Export Citation to BibTex
TY - JOUR
TI - The future evolution of global natural gas trade
AU - Yarlagadda, B
AU - Iyer, G
AU - Binsted, M
AU - Patel, P
AU - Wise, M
AU - McLeod, J
T2 - IScience
AB - Understanding the long-term evolution of natural gas is critical in the context of long-term energy system transitions. Here, we explicitly represent traded pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We find LNG to make up a dominant share of gas trade, as it can be flexibly shipped across regions. New global investments in LNG and pipeline export infrastructure respectively range from 230 to 840 and 70–620 million tons per annum (MTPA) by 2050 across scenarios; the lower end of this range is achieved through transitioning to low-carbon energy systems along with limited trade. Our results also highlight diverging implications for regions based on their gas trade profiles. For example, Russia, which produces gas largely for pipeline exports may experience greater production losses due to liquefaction and shipping improvements and geopolitical shifts than regions oriented more toward domestic and LNG markets, such as USA and Middle East.
DA - 2024/02//
PY - 2024
PB - Cell Press
VL - 27
IS - 2
SP - 12
UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224001238
DO - 10.1016/j.isci.2024.108902
LA - English
KW - Unspecified Feedstock
KW - Methane (Natural Gas)
KW - Unspecified Pathway
KW - Markets and Forecasting
ER -
Export Citation to RIS

Abstract

Understanding the long-term evolution of natural gas is critical in the context of long-term energy system transitions. Here, we explicitly represent traded pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We find LNG to make up a dominant share of gas trade, as it can be flexibly shipped across regions. New global investments in LNG and pipeline export infrastructure respectively range from 230 to 840 and 70–620 million tons per annum (MTPA) by 2050 across scenarios; the lower end of this range is achieved through transitioning to low-carbon energy systems along with limited trade. Our results also highlight diverging implications for regions based on their gas trade profiles. For example, Russia, which produces gas largely for pipeline exports may experience greater production losses due to liquefaction and shipping improvements and geopolitical shifts than regions oriented more toward domestic and LNG markets, such as USA and Middle East.