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Geopolitical risks impede global shipping decarbonization progress

Journal Article

Title: Geopolitical risks impede global shipping decarbonization progress
Author:
Zhao, P., Ma, T., Zhao, T., Xiao, R., Kang, T.
Affiliation:
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate, School, Shenzhen, China, Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Human-Earth Relations of Ministry of Natural Resources of China, Shenzhen, China, College of Resources and Environment, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China.
Publication Date:
Journal:
Communications Earth & Environment
Volume:
6
Issue:
835
Pages:
1-11
Publisher:
Nature Portfolio
Fuel Blends Mentioned?
No
Topics:
Policy, Strategy and Transition Pathways, Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) and Air Emissions
Vessel Segment:
Ocean-going Vessels
Language:
English

Document Access

Website:
Document Source
Attachment: Access File
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Citation

Zhao, P.; Ma, T.; Zhao, T.; Xiao, R.; Kang, T. (2025). Geopolitical risks impede global shipping decarbonization progress. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(835), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02852-7
@article{Zhao-2025-,
author = {Zhao, P and Ma, T and Zhao, T and Xiao, R and Kang, T},
title = {Geopolitical risks impede global shipping decarbonization progress},
journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
year = {2025},
month = {oct},
publisher = {Nature Portfolio},
volume = {6},
number = {835},
pages = {1--11},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-025-02852-7},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02852-7},
keywords = {Policy, Strategy and Transition Pathways, Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) and Air Emissions, Ocean-going Vessels},
}
Export Citation to BibTex
TY - JOUR
TI - Geopolitical risks impede global shipping decarbonization progress
AU - Zhao, P
AU - Ma, T
AU - Zhao, T
AU - Xiao, R
AU - Kang, T
T2 - Communications Earth & Environment
AB - Decarbonizing global shipping is crucial to achieving international climate goals. However, efforts in this field may be inhibited by geopolitical risks that profoundly affect global shipping. Here, we use natural language processing on an over 500-million-word corpus to quantify the shipping decarbonization attitudes of 52 countries. Using a causal inference approach, we provide evidence that geopolitical risks exert a substantial and statistically significant negative impact on national decarbonization willingness. This dampening effect threatens to delay the International Maritime Organization’s timeline for zero-carbon shipping. Causal evidence also reveals that countries facing geopolitical tend to prioritize economic efficiency over environmental concerns, particularly those with high levels of maritime trade, economic development, and carbon intensity. We further validated these shifts by analyzing carbon dioxide emissions of global vessel navigation. This study highlights the urgent need to bridge geopolitical divides to achieve the ambitious target of zero-carbon emissions in global shipping by mid-century.
DA - 2025/10//
PY - 2025
PB - Nature Portfolio
VL - 6
IS - 835
SP - 1
EP - 11
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02852-7
DO - 10.1038/s43247-025-02852-7
LA - English
KW - Policy, Strategy and Transition Pathways
KW - Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) and Air Emissions
KW - Ocean-going Vessels
ER -
Export Citation to RIS

Abstract

Decarbonizing global shipping is crucial to achieving international climate goals. However, efforts in this field may be inhibited by geopolitical risks that profoundly affect global shipping. Here, we use natural language processing on an over 500-million-word corpus to quantify the shipping decarbonization attitudes of 52 countries. Using a causal inference approach, we provide evidence that geopolitical risks exert a substantial and statistically significant negative impact on national decarbonization willingness. This dampening effect threatens to delay the International Maritime Organization’s timeline for zero-carbon shipping. Causal evidence also reveals that countries facing geopolitical tend to prioritize economic efficiency over environmental concerns, particularly those with high levels of maritime trade, economic development, and carbon intensity. We further validated these shifts by analyzing carbon dioxide emissions of global vessel navigation. This study highlights the urgent need to bridge geopolitical divides to achieve the ambitious target of zero-carbon emissions in global shipping by mid-century.