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Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?

Journal Article

Title: Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?
Affiliation:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Florida State University, Imperial College London, University of Oxford, University of California San Diego, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, University of Leeds, University of Maryland
Publication Date:
Journal:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume:
51.0
Issue:
15
Pages:
e2024GL109077
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Fuels Group:
Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO)
Fuel Blends Mentioned?
Yes
Feedstocks Group:
Unspecified Feedstock
Pathways Group:
Unspecified Pathway
Topics:
Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) and Air Emissions
Vessel Segment:
Ocean-going Vessels
Language:
English

Document Access

Website:
Document Source
Attachment:
Access File
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Citation

Gettelman, A.; Christensen, M.; Diamond, M.; Gryspeerdt, E.; Manshausen, P.; Stier, P.; Watson-Parris, D.; Yang, M.; Yoshioka, M.; Yuan, T. (2024). Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?. Geophysical Research Letters, 51.0(15), e2024GL109077.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl109077
@article{Gettelman-2024-4036,
author = {Gettelman, A and Christensen, M and Diamond, M and Gryspeerdt, E and Manshausen, P and Stier, P and Watson-Parris, D and Yang, M and Yoshioka, M and Yuan, T},
title = {Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
year = {2024},
month = {aug},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},
volume = {51.0},
number = {15},
pages = {2024109077},
doi = {10.1029/2024gl109077},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224001238?via%3Dihub},
keywords = {Unspecified Feedstock, Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), Unspecified Pathway, Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) and Air Emissions, Ocean-going Vessels},
}
Export Citation to BibTex
TY - JOUR
TI - Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?
AU - Gettelman, A
AU - Christensen, M
AU - Diamond, M
AU - Gryspeerdt, E
AU - Manshausen, P
AU - Stier, P
AU - Watson-Parris, D
AU - Yang, M
AU - Yoshioka, M
AU - Yuan, T
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
AB - Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm −2 . Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.
DA - 2024/08//
PY - 2024
PB - American Geophysical Union (AGU)
VL - 51.0
IS - 15
SP - e2024GL109077
UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224001238?via%3Dihub
DO - 10.1029/2024gl109077
LA - English
KW - Unspecified Feedstock
KW - Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO)
KW - Unspecified Pathway
KW - Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) and Air Emissions
KW - Ocean-going Vessels
ER -
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Abstract

Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm −2 . Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.