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TI - Impact of the IMO's draft Net-Zero Framework - April 2025
AU - Transport & Environment (T&E)
AB - The IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC83) approved a Net-Zero Framework in the hope of reaching the climate objectives set in the IMO 2023 GHG Strategy to decarbonise international shipping. The Strategy included intermediate objectives of 20-30% GHG emission reduction by 2030 and 70-80% reduction by 2040, eventually reaching net-zero by or around 2050. Unfortunately, the draft deal – known as a IMO Net-Zero Framework – will fall short of delivering these targets, let alone being compatible with the 1.5ºC temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. While the framework should be in a position to generate approx. revenues of $10 billion per year until 2035, our analysis concludes that the projected revenues will not be suffi cient to support the uptake of zero- and near-zero GHG fuels, nor enable a just and equitable transition. Even if funds are prioritised for ZNZ fuel rewards, in the absence of additional incentives, the estimated revenues needed to support the uptake of scalable ZNZs will run out by 2032. In addition, given that the framework does not exclude nor cap the use of any fuel type, the targets are likely to incentivise ships to rely on the most affordable crop-based fi rst-generation biofuels on the market, such as those produced from vegetable oils, including palm oil, soybeans or rapeseed. Given their impact on deforestation, reliance on these fuels would likely limit emissions savings and may even increase total shipping emissions. The framework holds similarities with the EU’s own version called FuelEU Maritime. A table showing the differences and similarities between those two frameworks is available in the annex.
DA - 2025/04//
PY - 2025
SP - 1
EP - 14
UR - https://uploads.transportenvironment.org/production/files/Impact-of-the-IMOs-draft-Net-Zero-Framework-April-2025.pdf
LA - English
KW - Agriculture: Food and Oil Crops
KW - Wastes and Byproducts
KW - Biodiesel (FAME)
KW - Ammonia
KW - Methane (Natural Gas)
KW - Methanol
KW - Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) and Air Emissions
KW - Markets and Forecasting
KW - Policy, Strategy and Transition Pathways
KW - Ocean-going Vessels
ER -
Abstract
The IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC83) approved a Net-Zero Framework in the hope of reaching the climate objectives set in the IMO 2023 GHG Strategy to decarbonise international shipping. The Strategy included intermediate objectives of 20-30% GHG emission reduction by 2030 and 70-80% reduction by 2040, eventually reaching net-zero by or around 2050. Unfortunately, the draft deal – known as a IMO Net-Zero Framework – will fall short of delivering these targets, let alone being compatible with the 1.5ºC temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. While the framework should be in a position to generate approx. revenues of $10 billion per year until 2035, our analysis concludes that the projected revenues will not be suffi cient to support the uptake of zero- and near-zero GHG fuels, nor enable a just and equitable transition. Even if funds are prioritised for ZNZ fuel rewards, in the absence of additional incentives, the estimated revenues needed to support the uptake of scalable ZNZs will run out by 2032. In addition, given that the framework does not exclude nor cap the use of any fuel type, the targets are likely to incentivise ships to rely on the most affordable crop-based fi rst-generation biofuels on the market, such as those produced from vegetable oils, including palm oil, soybeans or rapeseed. Given their impact on deforestation, reliance on these fuels would likely limit emissions savings and may even increase total shipping emissions. The framework holds similarities with the EU’s own version called FuelEU Maritime. A table showing the differences and similarities between those two frameworks is available in the annex.