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U.S. Billion-Ton Update: Biomass Supply for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry

Abstract

This report updates the original 2005 Billion-Ton Study by providing a comprehensive, price-responsive assessment of U.S. biomass resource availability for a bioenergy and bioproducts industry. Rather than estimating unconstrained biophysical potential, the analysis evaluates economically accessible biomass supplies under sustainability, land-use, and production constraints over the 2012–2030 period. The assessment covers agricultural residues, forest residues, energy crops, and major waste feedstocks within the contiguous United States, distinguishing between currently used resources and unused or prospective supplies. Biomass availability is estimated at the farmgate or forest roadside and does not include downstream transportation, storage, or conversion losses. Two scenarios are evaluated: a baseline scenario reflecting continuation of historical yield and management trends, and a high-yield scenario incorporating accelerated yield improvements and expanded adoption of reduced-tillage practices. Results indicate that hundreds of millions of dry tons of biomass could be economically available at moderate prices, with total potential approaching or exceeding one billion dry tons per year by 2030 when higher yields and energy crop deployment are assumed. Energy crops emerge as the largest potential growth source, though availability is highly sensitive to offered price and productivity assumptions. The findings are broadly consistent with earlier studies but reflect more realistic assumptions regarding sustainability, market response, and land competition. Overall, the report provides a conservative, scenario-based estimate of national biomass resource accessibility to inform renewable fuel policy, bioenergy planning, and long-term investment decisions, while emphasizing that actual deployment depends on market development, technology advancement, and sustained sustainability safeguards.