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author = {US Department of Energy (DOE)},
title = {2016 Billion-Ton Update: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy},
institution = {Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)},
year = {2016},
month = {jul},
number = {ORNL/TM-2016/160},
url = {https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/01/f19/billion_ton_update_0.pdf},
keywords = {Wastes and Byproducts, Forest Biomass, Biogenic Gases, Ethanol, Biodiesel (FAME), Gasoline, Methane (Natural Gas), Unspecified Pathway, Fuel Production Pathways, Markets and Forecasting},
}
RIS
TI - 2016 Billion-Ton Update: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy
AU - US Department of Energy (DOE)
AB - This report presents an updated national assessment of U.S. biomass resource potential, incorporating the latest data on costs, yields, economic conditions, and sustainability constraints. Rather than setting production targets, the analysis estimates economically accessible biomass supply under a range of market demand and price scenarios. Results are framed around near-term, mature-market (low, medium, and high), and emerging resource scenarios to reflect uncertainty in future market development. Across scenarios, the United States could sustainably support more than 1 billion dry tons of biomass per year while meeting projected demands for food, feed, fiber, and exports. Near-term resources—primarily unused wastes, agricultural residues, and forest residues—could provide roughly 350 million dry tons annually above current uses. Mature-market scenarios identify an additional 800–1,200 million dry tons per year, driven largely by adoption of purpose-grown energy crops on a limited share of agricultural land, with modeled impacts on food prices remaining below 1%. Resource estimates reflect the economically accessible fraction of total biophysical potential, constrained by environmental safeguards such as soil conservation, land-use restrictions, and sustainable forest harvest levels. Biomass availability varies significantly with offered price, geography, and market conditions, and results are intended to provide national-scale insights rather than precise local predictions. This report evaluates the economic availability of U.S. biomass resources for renewable energy and bioproduct production using updated yield, cost, and logistics data. Building on earlier national biomass assessments, the analysis estimates biomass supply under biophysical, economic, and sustainability constraints, with prices evaluated at the farmgate, roadside, and—through select case studies—delivered to biorefineries. The assessment covers a broad portfolio of resources, including agricultural residues, herbaceous and woody energy crops, forest residues, municipal and industrial wastes, and algae. Demands for food, feed, fiber, and timber are met prior to allocating biomass for energy uses. Agricultural and forestry resources are modeled over the period from 2015 to 2040, while algal biomass is evaluated using current and projected productivity and cost assumptions, including co-location with industrial carbon dioxide sources. Results indicate that more than one billion dry tons of biomass per year could be economically available at specified prices, consistent with earlier findings, while reflecting updated market conditions and expanded feedstock coverage. By incorporating transportation and logistics considerations and adding emerging feedstocks such as algae, this report provides a more comprehensive view of biomass resource accessibility to inform bioenergy system planning, infrastructure development, and policy analysis.
DA - 2016/07//
PY - 2016
SP - 448
PB - Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
SN - ORNL/TM-2016/160
UR - https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/01/f19/billion_ton_update_0.pdf
LA - English
KW - Wastes and Byproducts
KW - Forest Biomass
KW - Biogenic Gases
KW - Ethanol
KW - Biodiesel (FAME)
KW - Gasoline
KW - Methane (Natural Gas)
KW - Unspecified Pathway
KW - Fuel Production Pathways
KW - Markets and Forecasting
ER -
Abstract
This report presents an updated national assessment of U.S. biomass resource potential, incorporating the latest data on costs, yields, economic conditions, and sustainability constraints. Rather than setting production targets, the analysis estimates economically accessible biomass supply under a range of market demand and price scenarios. Results are framed around near-term, mature-market (low, medium, and high), and emerging resource scenarios to reflect uncertainty in future market development. Across scenarios, the United States could sustainably support more than 1 billion dry tons of biomass per year while meeting projected demands for food, feed, fiber, and exports. Near-term resources—primarily unused wastes, agricultural residues, and forest residues—could provide roughly 350 million dry tons annually above current uses. Mature-market scenarios identify an additional 800–1,200 million dry tons per year, driven largely by adoption of purpose-grown energy crops on a limited share of agricultural land, with modeled impacts on food prices remaining below 1%. Resource estimates reflect the economically accessible fraction of total biophysical potential, constrained by environmental safeguards such as soil conservation, land-use restrictions, and sustainable forest harvest levels. Biomass availability varies significantly with offered price, geography, and market conditions, and results are intended to provide national-scale insights rather than precise local predictions. This report evaluates the economic availability of U.S. biomass resources for renewable energy and bioproduct production using updated yield, cost, and logistics data. Building on earlier national biomass assessments, the analysis estimates biomass supply under biophysical, economic, and sustainability constraints, with prices evaluated at the farmgate, roadside, and—through select case studies—delivered to biorefineries. The assessment covers a broad portfolio of resources, including agricultural residues, herbaceous and woody energy crops, forest residues, municipal and industrial wastes, and algae. Demands for food, feed, fiber, and timber are met prior to allocating biomass for energy uses. Agricultural and forestry resources are modeled over the period from 2015 to 2040, while algal biomass is evaluated using current and projected productivity and cost assumptions, including co-location with industrial carbon dioxide sources. Results indicate that more than one billion dry tons of biomass per year could be economically available at specified prices, consistent with earlier findings, while reflecting updated market conditions and expanded feedstock coverage. By incorporating transportation and logistics considerations and adding emerging feedstocks such as algae, this report provides a more comprehensive view of biomass resource accessibility to inform bioenergy system planning, infrastructure development, and policy analysis.