Skip to main content

Full Steam Ahead

Abstract

In our analysis, we consider three scenarios for biofuel uptake, constrained by the need to deliver the proposed targets and distinguished by feedstock eligibility rules. The first scenario allows all feedstocks to contribute; the second excludes feedstocks classified as high-ILUC; the third restricts the contribution of food and feed crops. We find that without robust safeguards, the proposed policy risks driving net global emissions to increase rather than decrease. It is unclear at this stage of the IMO negotiations if and how ILUC emissions and methane leaks though the bio-LNG supply chains will be addressed in the proposed methodology. Excluding feedstocks identified as high-ILUC (i.e. palm and soybean oil) would be an easy way to enhance the robustness of the policy’s climate goals.