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How the IMO’s mid-term measures might shape shipping’s energy choices and transition to e-fuels

Report

Title: How the IMO’s mid-term measures might shape shipping’s energy choices and transition to e-fuels
Author:
Smith, T., Aymer, D.
Affiliation:
University College London
Pages:
1-41
Publisher:
UCL
Fuels Group:
Methane (Natural Gas), Ammonia
Fuel Blends Mentioned?
No
Feedstocks Group:
CO₂
Topics:
Policy, Strategy and Transition Pathways
Vessel Segment:
Ocean-going Vessels
Language:
English

Document Access

Website:
Document Source
Attachment: Access File
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(1.9 MB)

Citation

Smith, T.; Aymer, D. (). How the IMO’s mid-term measures might shape shipping’s energy choices and transition to e-fuels. Report by University College London.
TY - RPRT
TI - How the IMO’s mid-term measures might shape shipping’s energy choices and transition to e-fuels
AU - Smith, T
AU - Aymer, D
AB - To help inform that process of finalisation, we have used the current best available evidence to consider a plausible set of scenarios and investigate the competitiveness of different fuel and technology choices within those scenarios based on a total cost of operation (TCO) assessment of a 14,000 teu containership. The discussion and results focus on the extent to which e-fuels can be made competitive early in the transition (e.g. the period 2027-2035), relative to alternative low emission fuels and technologies. Unlike e-fuels, these are not expected to be dominant contributors to shipping’s energy demand in the long run, whether because they will not be compliant with the increasing stringency of a global fuel standard (e.g. LNG, blue ammonia and CCS) or because they are not scalable and thus unlikely to be as competitive as e-fuels as demand grows (e.g. biofuels).
DA - 1969/12//
PY - 1969
SP - 1
EP - 41
PB - University College London
UR - https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/publications/2025/feb/how-imos-mid-term-measures-might-shape-shippings-energy-choices-and-transition-e-fuels
LA - English
KW - CO₂
KW - Methane (Natural Gas)
KW - Ammonia
KW - Policy, Strategy and Transition Pathways
KW - Ocean-going Vessels
ER -
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Abstract

To help inform that process of finalisation, we have used the current best available evidence to consider a plausible set of scenarios and investigate the competitiveness of different fuel and technology choices within those scenarios based on a total cost of operation (TCO) assessment of a 14,000 teu containership. The discussion and results focus on the extent to which e-fuels can be made competitive early in the transition (e.g. the period 2027-2035), relative to alternative low emission fuels and technologies. Unlike e-fuels, these are not expected to be dominant contributors to shipping’s energy demand in the long run, whether because they will not be compliant with the increasing stringency of a global fuel standard (e.g. LNG, blue ammonia and CCS) or because they are not scalable and thus unlikely to be as competitive as e-fuels as demand grows (e.g. biofuels).